A living snapshot of current focus.
What I'm working on, thinking about, exploring, and paying attention to right now. Last updated April 2026.
Refining the market regime detection model — the current version handles equity and credit cycles well, but crypto regime transitions have different structural signatures that need their own logic. Spending most of my building time here.
Writing a longer essay on how information asymmetries in crypto markets differ structurally from those in traditional finance. The piece is about half-drafted and I keep finding new threads to pull.
Iterating on this site. Every page you're reading was written and designed as part of an ongoing process of clarifying what I want to communicate and how I want to show up professionally.
The relationship between narrative and price in speculative markets. Specifically, how you can use narrative velocity — the rate at which a market story is adopted and mutated — as a leading indicator for positioning.
Second-order effects of AI on knowledge work. Not the obvious automation story, but the subtler shifts in how expertise is valued, how research is conducted, and what it means to “know” something when synthesis is cheap.
How to build decision systems that improve over time — moving beyond one-off frameworks toward feedback loops that actually update based on outcomes.
Thinking in Systems
Donella Meadows
Re-reading with fresh eyes. The sections on leverage points are even more relevant to crypto market design than I remembered.
The Misbehavior of Markets
Benoit Mandelbrot
Mandelbrot's fractal view of markets — fat tails, long memory, and why volatility clusters — feels like the most honest description of how markets actually behave.
Superforecasting
Philip Tetlock
Studying the mechanics of calibrated judgment. How the best predictors update beliefs, manage uncertainty, and avoid cognitive traps.
The evolving regulatory landscape for digital assets in the US and EU. Not from a compliance perspective, but from a systems perspective — how regulation shapes incentive structures and capital flows.
The maturation of DeFi infrastructure. Layer 2 scaling, restaking protocols, and the slow convergence between DeFi and traditional capital markets are creating genuinely new primitives.
Early-stage AI companies that are building tools for reasoning and research, not just generation. The gap between “AI that writes” and “AI that thinks” is where the next wave of real value sits.